Partitioning Iraq: the Inevitable Next Step
Friday, June 29th, 2007This week brought encouraging news for Americans eager to end our military commitment in Iraq. Two Republican senators who have previously supported the Bush position, Richard Lugar of Indiana and George Voinovich of Ohio, have bravely spoken up in favor of a more realistic future strategy. With mainstream Republican support for the Bush position fading, the USA’s inevitable withdrawal will be hastened. The big debate is drawing to a close — in fact, it’s all over but the spinning. So what will happen in Iraq once coalition forces step away?
Nobody knows how events will unfold, but one result seems highly likely: Maliki’s central government will dissolve — perhaps quickly, perhaps slowly and painfully — and a Shi’a-dominated government will prevail in the majority of the country. But the Sunni and Kurd strongholds are too well-entrenched and well-organized to yield, so Iraq will exist for the near future as three nations.
Is this a good or desirable outcome? Well, not really, but since peaceful happy coexistence doesn’t seem to be gaining ground, it’s better than the alternative (subjugation and military oppression of the minority by the majority, or, as in the Saddam days, subjugation and military oppression of the majority by the minority). Here’s the Middle East for the foreseeable future: two Palestines and three Iraqs. Since the Middle East’s national boundaries are largely artificial lines drawn by imperial fiat after the fall of the Ottoman empire anyway, it’s hard to say how offensive or destabilizing this de-nationalizing will feel to the people of these lands. I really don’t know.
But I’m glad these Republican senators are delivering their sane messages to confused Americans eager for any type of future direction. It’s the right step forward.
